Prediction Model

The Oracle uses a weighted scoring model to generate conviction scores for each match outcome.

Data Sources

All data comes from the football-data.org API:

Data Point	Source	Importance
Current standings & form	/competitions/{code}/standings	High
Head-to-head (last 5)	/matches?team1&team2	Medium
Recent results (last 5)	/teams/{id}/matches?status=FINISHED	High
Home/Away splits	Derived from match results	High
Goals scored/conceded	Derived from standings	Medium
Season context	Calendar (early/mid/late)	Low

Scoring Model

For each match, the Oracle computes a conviction score (0-100) for Home Win, Away Win, and Draw:

HomeWinScore = (
  homeFormWeight   * homeRecentWinRate +
  standingsWeight  * positionDifference +
  h2hWeight        * homeH2HWinRate +
  homeAdvantage    * HOME_BOOST +
  goalDiffWeight   * homeGoalDifference
)

Away Win score uses the mirror calculation. Draw score fills the remainder (clamped between 15-40).

Weight Configuration

Factor	Weight
Home form (last 5 results)	0.30
Standings position gap	0.25
Head-to-head record	0.15
Home advantage boost	0.15
Goal difference	0.15
HOME_BOOST constant	0.60

The outcome with the highest conviction score becomes the prediction.

Exact Score Generation

The exact score is cosmetic (not used for settlement) and is generated based on team goal averages:

Prediction	Score Formula
Home Win	ceil(homeAvgGF) - floor(awayAvgGF * 0.7)
Away Win	floor(homeAvgGF * 0.7) - ceil(awayAvgGF)
Draw	round(avg(homeAvgGF, awayAvgGF)) - same

Typical outputs: 2-1, 3-1 (home), 1-2, 0-2 (away), 1-1, 2-2 (draw).

Analysis Generation

The Oracle uses an LLM to generate a 2-3 sentence analysis:

• Style: Confident but analytical

• Tone: Sharp sports analyst, not robotic

• Content: References specific stats (form, H2H, standings)

• Length: Maximum 3 sentences

Edge Cases

Scenario	Handling
Very low conviction (< 30 for all)	Predict Draw with disclaimer
No data available	Skip prediction, mark as "NO ORACLE"
Postponed match	Cancel prediction, refund all bids
Teams not in database	Skip match